High GDP growth and inflation frequently go together. Since the launch of the reform program, there have been four serious bouts of inflation in China. The last occurred in the early 1990s, peaking at 27 per cent in late 1994. Thereafter, inflation began easing and in 1998 turned into a deflation that continued until 2000. The lowest rate of deflation was in 1999, at 2.2 per cent. The second episode of deflation occurred in the last quarter of 2001 and continued until the end of 2002 (Feyzioglu, 2004). The annual deflationary rate during 2002 was 0.8 per cent. The next year prices recorded a small increase of 1.2 per cent, increasing to 3.9 per cent in 2004.
An examination of disaggregated prices revealed an interesting pattern; prices of tradable consumer goods declined consistently between 1997 and 2002. In particular, domestic prices of clothing and housing, two items that have heavy weighting in the consumer price index (CPI), recorded a sharp decline during this period. Similarly, foodstuffs prices, also heavily weighted in the CPI, recorded a sharper decline. The deflationary phase ended in late 2002, when prices of food and energy began to rise. This was a turning point, after which tradable goods prices began to show a moderate increase (Feyzioglu, 2004).
During the central-planning period, China practiced price control or administered price system, but eliminated most price controls in 1993; although most prices in China are now market-determined, some are still controlled and administered by the state. The most important of these is the interest rate, which is slowly being liberalized. Administratively determined prices — euphemistically referred to as 'guidelines' by the State Development and Reform Commission — include pharmaceuticals, and health and education services, and take the form of price or fee ceilings. These components have approximately 10 per cent weighting in the CPI. Promoting social stability was the basic objective of keeping price increases in these sectors under control.