Colorado and neighboring states are showing signs of a weakening rural economy amid challenges in the energy and farm sectors.
Creighton University's Rural Mainstreet Index sank to its lowest level in five years.
The index uses surveys of bank CEOs to measure rural economic prospects in Colorado and nine other Western and Midwestern states.
"The stronger U.S. dollar is undermining the farm and energy sectors by weakening agricultural exports, crop prices, livestock prices and energy prices," said the report's author, Ernie Goss, a regional economics professor at Omaha-based Creighton University.
"Rural main-street businesses dependent on export, agriculture or energy are experiencing pullbacks in economic activity," Goss said.
The regional index dropped to 43.6, its lowest level since February 2010. An index number above 50 suggest economic growth. Scores below 50 point toward future declines.
Colorado's index number in March was 40.6, down from 47.2 in February. It marked the second consecutive month of a sub-50 ranking after 11 straight months of tallying above 50.
"It's not dire by any stretch of the imagination," Goss said. "The low numbers have not really hit the economy just yet. They are just a shot across the bow. We would have to see several months of low numbers before having a big concern."
The Mainstreet index report illustrates a dichotomy between rural and urban economies. Colorado's strong growth in employment is largely a reflection of Front Range economic activity, while the index report uses indicators such as farmland prices, farm equipment sales and banking activity in rural areas.
The fundamentals of supply and demand are affecting Colorado's economy in different ways. The past year's downturn in energy prices have been caused primarily by surging domestic oil production. But lower crop and livestock prices are a function of increased supply from large harvests as well as weakened demand in export markets.
Goss said that potential job losses in Colorado's energy sector will be offset, in part, by increases in tourism generated by cheap gasoline.
In a separate report issued Thursday, the Applied Information Management Institute reported that Colorado has the nation's eighth-best job prospects as measured by the ratio of unique online job postings to the number of unemployed people.
Occupations showing the highest growth rates were automobile sales and service, sales and unskilled entry-level positions. The largest declines were in customer service, insurance and transportation.