concentrations are approximately equal on the two sides of the
Huai River.
Fig. 3 repeats the graphical exercise in Fig. 2, except here it plots
life expectancy against degrees north of the Huai River boundary.
The striking finding is that there is a discrete decline in life expectancy
at the border of roughly 5 y, which mirrors the increase in
TSPs. Together, Figs. 2 and 3 reveal a sharp increase in TSPs and
a sharp decline in life expectancy at precisely the location where
the Huai River policy went into effect. The results in Fig. 3 are also
evident in SI Appendix, Fig. S3 in the sample of DSP sites within
5° latitude of the Huai River.
Fig. 4 graphically assesses the validity of this paper’s approach
by testing whether predicted life expectancy, calculated as the
fitted value from an ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression of life
expectancy on all covariates except TSPs (just as in Table 1), differs
at the Huai River’s border. Specifically, this equation includes
all of the covariates listed in panels 2 and 3 of Table 1, and these
variables collectively explain a substantial portion of the variation
in life expectancy (R2 = 0.265). It is evident that predicted life expectancy
is essentially equal just to the north and south of the border
(Table 1 reports a P value of 0.81 from a test of equal life expectancy).
Also note that SI Appendix, Table S2 demonstrates that dietary
and smoking patterns are similar in the North and South,
suggesting that these determinants of life expectancy are unlikely to
explain the sharp decline in life expectancy north of the border.
concentrations are approximately equal on the two sides of theHuai River.Fig. 3 repeats the graphical exercise in Fig. 2, except here it plotslife expectancy against degrees north of the Huai River boundary.The striking finding is that there is a discrete decline in life expectancyat the border of roughly 5 y, which mirrors the increase inTSPs. Together, Figs. 2 and 3 reveal a sharp increase in TSPs anda sharp decline in life expectancy at precisely the location wherethe Huai River policy went into effect. The results in Fig. 3 are alsoevident in SI Appendix, Fig. S3 in the sample of DSP sites within5° latitude of the Huai River.Fig. 4 graphically assesses the validity of this paper’s approachby testing whether predicted life expectancy, calculated as thefitted value from an ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression of lifeexpectancy on all covariates except TSPs (just as in Table 1), differsat the Huai River’s border. Specifically, this equation includesall of the covariates listed in panels 2 and 3 of Table 1, and thesevariables collectively explain a substantial portion of the variationin life expectancy (R2 = 0.265). It is evident that predicted life expectancyis essentially equal just to the north and south of the border(Table 1 reports a P value of 0.81 from a test of equal life expectancy).Also note that SI Appendix, Table S2 demonstrates that dietaryand smoking patterns are similar in the North and South,suggesting that these determinants of life expectancy are unlikely to
explain the sharp decline in life expectancy north of the border.
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