Recent strong U.S. data bolster the economic growth prospects which could allow the Fed to raise interest rates in June as indicated in the Fed’s latest minutes. Japan’s consumption tax hike is postponed until October 2019 to avoid consumption plunge.
In April, Thai economy continued to gradually improve from services sector while exports turned to contraction again after 2 months of expansion.
Private demand remains low. Durable goods consumption still shrank. However, if higher agricultural prices persist, it should somewhat help private consumption. In addition, private investment is still hindered by excess production capacity.
Manufacturing production slightly increased, mainly supported by Pick-Up Passenger Vehicles (PPVs) and electrical appliances demand.
Thai exports in April unexpectedly drop 8.0% from decreasing volume mainly in cars/ auto parts and electronics parts to Australia and Japan and USA. Trade to all major export partners declined except CLMV which, after excluding gold and oil, still maintain 4.4% growth in sectors including beverages, passengers cars, and electrical appliances.
Inflation in May increased to +0.5%, from 0.1% in previous month. Hence, the possibility of policy rate cut is significantly diminished.
Compare to last year depreciation rage, we expect the baht to appreciate against US dollar with the end-of-year target of 35.00 THB/USD.