3. Tonnage on order
Following the peaks in 2008 and 2009, the tonnage
on order for all major vessel types has drastically
declined over the last few years. As far fewer new
orders were placed since the economic crisis of
2008, and shipyards continued to deliver pre-ordered
tonnage, the order books went down by 50 per cent
for container ships, 58 per cent for dry-bulk carriers,
65 per cent for tankers and by 67 per cent for generalcargo
ships, as compared to the previous peaks
(figure 2.10 and table 2.10).
The reduction in the order book is even more
impressive if compared to the existing fleet. At the
end of 2008, the dry-bulk order book was equivalent
to almost 80 per cent of the fleet at that time, while
the tonnage on order as of January 2013 is the
equivalent of just 20 per cent of the fleet in service.
For tankers, the order book went down from 50 per
cent of the fleet at its peak to around 10 per cent in
January 2013.
For all main vessel types, new orders are at historical
lows, and the order book is declining rapidly. Unless
large numbers of countercyclical investors place new
orders in 2013 and 2014, by 2014 numerous shipyards
will need to reduce employment. Reports from ship
brokers suggest that in fact more such countercyclical
investors are emerging, expecting to benefit from
the current low newbuilding prices, and hoping for
a revival of the shipping markets in coming years
(Clarkson Research Services, 2013a). Nevertheless,
from the shipyards’ perspective, the current capacity
is almost certainly too high for even the most optimistic
scenario. According to some estimates “shipyard
capacity could be slashed by as much as 40 per cent
across the world and the industry would still be able
to meet the demand for new ships for 2015” (China
Trade Today - Online Magazine, 2013).
3. Tonnage on order
Following the peaks in 2008 and 2009, the tonnage
on order for all major vessel types has drastically
declined over the last few years. As far fewer new
orders were placed since the economic crisis of
2008, and shipyards continued to deliver pre-ordered
tonnage, the order books went down by 50 per cent
for container ships, 58 per cent for dry-bulk carriers,
65 per cent for tankers and by 67 per cent for generalcargo
ships, as compared to the previous peaks
(figure 2.10 and table 2.10).
The reduction in the order book is even more
impressive if compared to the existing fleet. At the
end of 2008, the dry-bulk order book was equivalent
to almost 80 per cent of the fleet at that time, while
the tonnage on order as of January 2013 is the
equivalent of just 20 per cent of the fleet in service.
For tankers, the order book went down from 50 per
cent of the fleet at its peak to around 10 per cent in
January 2013.
For all main vessel types, new orders are at historical
lows, and the order book is declining rapidly. Unless
large numbers of countercyclical investors place new
orders in 2013 and 2014, by 2014 numerous shipyards
will need to reduce employment. Reports from ship
brokers suggest that in fact more such countercyclical
investors are emerging, expecting to benefit from
the current low newbuilding prices, and hoping for
a revival of the shipping markets in coming years
(Clarkson Research Services, 2013a). Nevertheless,
from the shipyards’ perspective, the current capacity
is almost certainly too high for even the most optimistic
scenario. According to some estimates “shipyard
capacity could be slashed by as much as 40 per cent
across the world and the industry would still be able
to meet the demand for new ships for 2015” (China
Trade Today - Online Magazine, 2013).
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