Future Scenarios for Organic Breeding
The conditions for breeding in organic production are likely to change in the future. Debate exists regarding which reproduction techniques should be allowed in organic production, and the use of conventionally bred bulls (e.g., bulls from embryo transfer) may become restricted. Furthermore, research about traits important in organic dairy production and the relative importance of different traits will show whether separate breeding goals need to be developed for organic production. Growing organic populations and development of less costly breeding programs than the ones used in conventional production today will increase the possibilities for an organic breeding strategy in the future. The use of genomic selection should also be considered for organic production, because it may increase the genetic gain in functional traits and can be used for increasing genetic diversity by identifying outcross bulls. On the other hand, genomic selection
is expensive and requires a large reference population, which may limit use of the technique if the breeding should be performed entirely within the organic production. The general absence of G×E between organic and conventional production in Sweden indicates, however, that the conventional reference population could be used in organic production.