Despite a successful start at the beginning of implementation, South Australia's first five-year zero waste strategy (2011–2015) has been experiencing the consequences of the global economic downturn. There has been a significant government investment of about AUD4.5 million for waste infrastructure, which boosted an additional AUD10 million in industrial ventures and stimulated an increase in tonnes of material diverted from landfill and, in some cases, resulted in additional employment in South Australia (ZWSA, 2013b). The core zero waste goals are a 35% reduction (with a milestone of 25% by 2014) in landfill disposal from the 2002–2003 level by 2020, and a 5% reduction in per capita waste generation by 2015. The waste strategy has two milestones for municipal solid waste diversion: a 60% reduction by 2012 and a 70% reduction by 2015 (ZWSA, 2011a). In addition, for C&D waste, targets for diversion from landfill were set to 85% by 2012 and 90% by 2015.
Using time series waste generation and management data and by considering the projected targets in the waste strategy, waste data for the years 2015 and 2020 were projected, adapted and are presented in Table 3. The following four assumptions have been made to project waste generation and management in the Adelaide metropolitan area:
•
the waste generation rate increased 42% in 2010 compared to the previous year because municipal waste streams include C&D waste and a massive infrastructure development project has started in Adelaide, hence the overall generation of waste has increased significantly;
•
the waste generation rate is assumed to have increased by 25% (the same as in the past 5 years) during 2015 and 2020;
•
waste composting is assumed to have increased 12% (the same as in the past 5 years) during 2015 and 2020;
•
waste sent to landfill is assumed to be meeting the targeted 35% reduction in landfill disposal from the 2002-03 level by achieving the 2020 milestone of 25% by 2014 as per Zero Waste SA's strategy.
Table 3.
Municipal waste generation and management in Adelaide.
Indicators Year
Past years
Projected years
2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020
Population (thousand) 1534 1550 1584 1602 1622 1644 1657 1770 1856
Waste generated tonnes (thousand) 3320 3554 3578 3741 3624 3795 5394 5108 6694
Per capita waste generated kg/cap 2164 2293 2258 2334 2233 2308 3294a 2885b 3606b
Waste composted tonnes (thousand) 246.8 565.9 571.7 528.9 504.9 635.8 954.4 1068c 1196c
Waste recycled tonnes (thousand) 1795 1830 1862 2082 2047 2124 3356 2937 4507
Waste diverted tonnes (thousand) 2042 2396 2434 2611 2552 2760 4310 4005 5703
Waste landfilled tonnes (thousand) 1278 1158 1144 1130 1072 1035 1084 1103d 991.4d
Per capita landfill (kg/person) 830 750 720 710 660 630 650 623 534
Waste diversion rate in % 61.5% 67.4% 68.0% 69.8% 70.4% 72.7% 79.9% 78.5% 85.2%
Per capita diversion rate (kg/person) 1330 1550 1540 1630 1570 1680 2600 2262 3072
a
Waste generation rate has increased 42% in 2010 compared to the previous year because municipal waste streams include C&D waste and a massive infrastructure development project has started in Adelaide, hence the overall generation has increased significantly.
b
Waste generation rate is assumed to increase 25% during 2015 and 2020.
c
Waste composting is assumed to increased 12% during 2015 and 2020.
d
Waste to landfill is assumed to be meeting the targeted 35% reduction in landfill disposal from the 2002-03 level by achieving the 2020 milestone of 25% by 2014 as per Zero Waste SA's strategy.
Table options
Despite a municipal solid waste diversion target of 60% by 2012 and 70% by 2015, the study indicates that the projected diversion rate would increase to over 78% by 2015 and over 85% by 2020 if the waste disposal to landfill rate can be reduced to the targeted rate. The reason for these higher levels of waste diversion rate is due to C&D waste also being included in the municipal waste data. If a significant amount of C&D is recycled and diverted and recorded as a fraction of municipal solid waste this is a misleading figure for municipal waste diversion from landfill. If C&D waste is not considered in MSW then the waste diversion rate would be lower than the projected diversion rate. This is due to limitations in the data on standalone municipal solid waste fractions in waste reporting in South Australia.