While critical of certain aspects of MGRM’s hedging strategy, Edwards
and Canter are agnostic as to whether MG’s board was correct to terminate
its U.S. subsidiary’s oil-hedging program.10 Mello and Parsons (1995a, b) are
more critical of MGRM’s hedging strategy, arguing that it was speculative in
its design and intent. They base their views on a written strategic plan prepared
by MGRM’s management, which outlined a plan to exploit backwardation in
futures markets as part of its hedging program. Where the plan went wrong,
according to Mello and Parsons, was in assuming that the firm could take advantage
of backwardation to price its long-term customer contracts below the full
cost of carry. They conclude that viewing MGRM’s stack-and-roll strategy as
a hedge reverses the order of cause and effect, arguing that it should be viewed
as a misguided speculative attempt to profit from the backwardation normally
present in futures markets for petroleum products while using forward delivery
contracts as a partial hedge.