2.6.4 Conclusions on performance of logistics systems............................... 84
2.6.5 General conclusions ...................................................................... 86
3. Logistics trends and scenarios ................................................................. 88
3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................... 88
3.2 Identification of external factors ........................................................... 89
3.2.1 Political factors ............................................................................ 92
3.2.2 Economic factors ........................................................................ 101
3.2.3 Social and cultural factors............................................................ 107
3.2.4 Technological factors .................................................................. 111
3.2.5 Legal factors.............................................................................. 116
3.2.6 Environmental factors ................................................................. 119
3.2.7 Identification of main external factors ........................................... 125
3.3 Identification of logistic strategies and trends ....................................... 125
3.4 Impact assessment of main external factors, strategies and trends.......... 132
3.4.1 Assessment of the impact of the main external factors..................... 132
3.4.2 Impact assessment of main external factors and logistic strategies.... 134
3.4.3 Main conclusions of impact assessment ......................................... 151
3.5 Scenarios for EU logistic development ................................................. 152
3.5.1 EU Reference Scenario 2013 ........................................................ 152
3.5.2 Scenario development................................................................. 154
3.5.3 Scenario assessment .................................................................. 156
3.5.4 Scenario conclusion .................................................................... 158
4. Mid to long-term logistics policy ............................................................ 160
4.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 160
4.2 Problem definition ............................................................................ 160
4.2.1 Rising logistics cost due to inefficiencies and market failures............. 164
4.2.2 Negative environmental impact .................................................... 165
4.2.3 Increasing shortage of staff ......................................................... 166
4.2.4 Affected parties.......................................................................... 167
4.2.5 Problem tree and root causes of the problems ................................ 172
4.2.6 How will the causes of logistics problems evolve in the future?.......... 181
4.3 Definition of the objectives ................................................................ 182
4.4 Policy options .................................................................................. 185
4.4.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 185
4.4.2 The review of FTLAP 2007 ........................................................... 186
4.4.3 The development of policy options ................................................ 195
4.5 Analysis of impacts........................................................................... 204
4.5.1 Analytical approach .................................................................... 204
4.5.2 Alternative policy options ............................................................ 205
4.5.3 Step 1: Identification of economic, social and environmental impacts. 205
4.5.4 Step 2: Identification of the most important impacts ....................... 223
4.5.5 Step 3: Multi-criteria analysis based on most important impacts ....... 244