The studies noted above that use the association between interperiod tax allocation and equity
value (stock returns) have the following limitations: (1) the findings are based on the
assumption that equity value is an appropriate measure of deferred tax information, i.e., one
has to believe in market efficiency, and; (2) primary and secondary effects of an item on the
market are often difficult to separate, e.g., the effect of reporting specific amounts of deferred
tax cannot be separated from the general effect of income smoothing caused by practicing
interperiod tax allocation.
Other researchers have studied the link between deferred tax and cash flows. Cheung et al.
(1997) used Lorek and Willinger's (1996) model to estimate the contribution of deferred tax
data to forecasts of future tax payments and prediction of future cash flows. The results
suggest that on average each dollar of tax liability reported results in a cash outflow of 11 to 28
cents. This study has the following limitations: (1) the cost effectiveness of reporting deferred
tax and applying the cash flow model to the reported data is not addressed; (2) the benefit of
using the model for a specific firm is limited because of the small amount of additional
information provided, and; (3) the model uses a proxy for operating cash flows and has several
other limitations and simplifying assumptions which may not be appropriate.
DISPOSITION OF DEFERRED TAX
The behavior of deferred tax balances may be divided into at least six different categories: (1)
once established, the deferred tax remains approximately constant for an extended, indefinite
time because new temporary differences offset reversing differences; (2) the deferred tax
continues to increase for an extended, indefinite time because new temporary differences
continue to be larger than reversing differences; (3) occasional temporary differences reverse
quickly causing elimination of the deferred tax; (4) the deferred tax fluctuates over time, but
does not decline to a zero balance; (5) the deferred tax is effectively eliminated as the result of
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an operating loss or losses; and (6) deferred tax is no longer related to the original entity
because of a business combination. In order to interpret the effect of deferred tax on the
financial position of a company, the financial analyst needs to know the most likely behavior
pattern of the deferred tax.
If the deferred tax remains the same or continues to grow over an extended period of time
(casesl and 2), the present value of the asset or liability is small compared to the undiscounted
amount. Even though the undiscounted deferred tax may be large, the present value may be
relatively small and more relevant in evaluating future cash flows and the entity's financial
position. If a deferred tax liability will be paid or a deferred tax asset will be used within a fairly
short period of time (case 3), the undiscounted amount(s) is relevant due to the short discount
period. If the deferred tax fluctuates materially over time but does not approach zero (case 4),
it is likely that a portion of the deferred tax is effectively constant, and a portion is cyclical. In
this situation, it is logical to present the constant portion at present value using a longer
discount period than for the cyclical portion. If operating losses occur, the carryforward(s) may
effectively eliminate a portion or all of any deferred tax liability (case 5). The occurrence and
amounts of operating losses would be difficult to predict on a long-term basis; however, future
operating losses can have a significant effect on the disposition of deferred tax. After a
business combination, the deferred tax may no longer apply to the acquired entity. The impact
of deferred tax on the negotiations for the combination will depend on the negotiators'
perceived disposition of the deferred tax. The disposition of pre-combination deferred tax will
depend on various post-combination contingencies.
In summary, the disposition of deferred tax depends on several contingencies, and it is likely
that the undiscounted deferred tax reported often is not the relevant amount that should be
used to evaluate the financial statements. The present value of deferred tax may be very low
compared to the undiscounted amount. Because of these characteristics and the uncertainties
surrounding deferred tax, it is no surprise that many financial analysts ignore or attempt to
discount deferred tax when evaluating the financial statements of a business entity.
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DEFERRED TAX ASSETS AND LIABILITIES
As discussed earlier, the reported undiscounted deferred tax asset and or liability may not
provide relevant information or may actually be misleading for several reasons: (1) the asset or
liability is contingent on the occurrence of certain future events; (2) the effective reversal of the
temporary differences may be so far in the future that the present value of the deferred tax is a
small fraction of the undiscounted amount; and, (3) the amount of deferred tax may be
materially affected by future changes in the tax rate, occurrence of operating losses, or other
tax related circumstances.
There is no official pronouncement about the recognition of contingent assets, and recording
contingent assets has not been generally accepted financial accounting practice. However,
SFAS No. 109 requires that deferred tax assets be reduced only if the probability they will not
be used is greater than 50%. Thus, undiscounted deferred tax assets are recorded if the
probability of realization is just in excess of 50%. Furthermore, an estimated amount to be
reported may be unreliable because of the uncertainties inherent in predicting taxable income
over the next twenty years.
Should a decision to record a transaction differently for financial accounting than for tax create
an asset or liability? Once a tax accounting procedure has been determined, timing of the
item's effect on taxable income and tax payable has been determined and is unaffected by
recording the item in a different period for financial accounting. A timing difference does not
create an asset or liability immediately receivable from or payable to the U. S. Treasury
Department. A future reduction or increase in tax (compared to financial reporting) may be
forthcoming; however, the deferred tax is a contingent asset or liability that may be recorded at
an amount materially in excess of its present value. Thus, the undiscounted amount reported
for the deferred tax is not likely to be relevant.