Globalisation of the economy (industries/services)
Relevance for the logistic market:
The logistics and transport sector, and its related activities, significantly depend on globalisation, especially the globalisation of production. Assuming that the division of global work and demand of market enlargement will increase globally, the global logistics sector will also benefit from it. Global supply chains and the trade of intermediary products, which are inevitably based on the global division of work, are expected to increase accordingly. Nevertheless, given the above discussed developments, it is mostly presumed that this growth will slow down in the future;
One prerequisite for participating further in the effects of globalisation will be the abolition of trade barriers and constraints to trade and market access (cf. external factors ‘Trade barriers’). These will further incite the division of global work and foster the demand for market enlargement.
Shift of financial market power
Relevance for the logistic market:
In spite of the trade volumes and values between the US, the EU and China being considerably higher than the trade between ASEAN and China, the growth of economies and hence the financial market power is expected to increase, especially in the Asian region. From the European perspective, this development indicates that the European logistic service providers are facing intense competition within and outside Europe, because of the comparatively increasing competitiveness of Asian LSP in Europe and, respectively, a shift of market power towards Asia.
3.2.3 Social and cultural factors
EU population development
Relevance for the logistic market:
The relevance for the logistic sector caused by population developments is mainly based on the spatial shift of demand and supply markets (see also “EU market enlargement” above). The comparatively lower overall growth of the European population and the spatial differences are expected to have an impact on the EU logistics sector. The latter has to react to the shift of the spatial demand and the type of goods requested as a consequence of the relocation of production.
Ageing society
Relevance for the logistic market:
The ongoing and future ageing of European society induces a structural change of logistic supply chains, because of the different demand habits of elderly people with regards to products (type) and their purchase (time, frequency). The share of elderly people in the EU until 2030 and beyond will increase, as well as the intensity and frequency of goods and services delivery. This results from the fact that elderly people will progressively integrate e-commerce related tools into their everyday lives. Furthermore, the growing share and importance of the over 65 years age group and its changing requirements will also change the types of most demanded goods.
Urbanisation
Relevance for the logistic market:
While the spatial distribution of urban areas within Europe is widespread and stagnant, the expected functional urbanisation in Europe influences the spatial structure of supply chains due to different sourcing, production and distribution.
Proliferation of electronic business
Relevance for the logistic market:
The increasing proliferation of electronic business, especially regarding consumer preferences, has significant relevance for the logistic sector because it will impose enormous requirements in the fields of reliability, punctuality and expedition;
For the logistics sector, e-commerce (impacting parcel deliveries and return logistics), the tracking of freight and vehicles, and its management, as well as cloud-services (which allow the sharing of data to make synchromodal supply chains work) are likely to be of increasing importance for the future operation of logistics chains;
On the other hand, internet- and web-based services create challenges in the way the privacy of information and data is dealt with.
Environmental awareness
Relevance for the logistic market:
For logistics systems to become environmentally responsible and sustainable, the traditional logistics view of minimising costs and lead times needs to be balanced by the target to minimise environmental impacts;
The abovementioned survey results show that environmental awareness will become substantially important in the mid-term.
Changes in social and consumer behaviour characteristics
Relevance for the logistic market:
The fact that lifestyles are undergoing a more rapid change than ever in post-industrial society, and individualisation is increasing, is expected to have a minor direct influence on the logistics sector, but a stronger indirect influence because of an distinct change in personal mobility, consumer behaviour, diversity of work, importance of recreational time, etc.;
The influence of connections between social and consumer behaviour on the logistics sector might not be obvious at first glance; however, it is expected to have an impact on the amount of ordering processes and direct deliveries, transport supply system and subsequent transport loads;
In general, it is a reasonable assumption that individual lifestyles and thus the individual degree of individualisation is expected to increase, and will gain importance accordingly.
3.2.4 Technological factors
Vehicle and transport technologies (cleaner vehicles)
Relevance for the logistic market:
The developments are of relevance for the logistic sector because of, on the one hand, an increase of costs and on the other hand, a reduction of emissions and energy dependency;
Taking the heavy goods vehicle stock in Germany as an example, one can illustrate important changes between 2007 and 201389. In this period the stock of EURO III heavy goods vehicles dropped from more than 220,000 to just above 5,000 vehicles in 2013. Contrarily to that, EURO V vehicles grew from approx. 19,000 to more than 190,000 vehicles in the same period. As of 1 January 2014, the stock of EURO VI vehicles amounted to only 10,000 vehicles, due to the reluctance of road hauliers to invest in EURO VI trucks given the uncertainties regarding the development of the German toll. Nevertheless, one can expect a similar development of the stock of EURO VI vehicles in the coming years.