The Industry Today
Several trends have stabilized the industry in recent years. First, the airlines finally realized that they need to be cautious about adding capacity and the only way to grow without dying is to consolidate. This has kept airlines from expanding too rapidly and touched off the recent wave of mergers. Second, the airlines have figured out that adding fees for previously complimentary amenities such as baggage or food can boost their bottom line. While passengers have reacted negatively, they are slowly getting used to this new normal. Finally, barriers to entry have increased as lenders have begun to realize that a new airline is not a great investment. For years this obvious fact was overlooked in part due to the glamour and prestige involved in owning an airline. But the bottom line appears to have caught up with investors and the number of new entrants has slowed dramatically.
This period of relative stability has been positive for the industry, but what about its customers? Customers love to complain about the airlines, especially their new fees for baggage and better seats, but the fact is that the commercial aviation system in this country remains incredibly effective and affordable. Congestion is down because airports aren’t flooded with capacity by carriers looking to capture market share. More flights are full, which may be uncomfortable for passengers but is also a sign of a more stable industry. Sure, people would always prefer to have lower fares and empty planes, but that dream—along with free lunches, sunshine, and lollipops—may be unrealistic.
Conclusions
The DOJ may have good reason to suspect that the American Airlines – US Airways merger will result in higher fares for consumers. But the problem is that DOJ is a legal entity that is interceding on what is actually a transportation and economic issue. We should not be determining our national transportation policies through legal means – that should be a last resort.
Unfortunately, when we eliminated the CAB, we did not create an effective mechanism within the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) to deal with potential competitiveness issues. The high fixed costs and potential for aggressive competition that plagued the industry prior to deregulation still plagues it today, and consumers could face monopolistic pricing if barriers to entry become high and consolidation continues. The only things keeping the industry in check are the airlines themselves, DOJ, and to a large extent Congress, which will hold hearings anytime the industry does anything suspect. None of these entities are likely to be effective regulators of a transportation issue that impacts the economy at large and the traveling public. If the federal government believes that the current regulatory arrangement may result in harm to consumers, the appropriate action is to institute a thoughtful policy, ideally initiated by Congress and executed by USDOT, to change that. Perhaps some careful and limited forms of regulation might be necessary to prevent monopolistic pricing. But blocking mergers on an ad-hoc basis in an industry that remains only marginally profitable is not a sustainable solution.