The model structure should allow spatial interactions
between locations and feedbacks from higher
levels of organization.
Model Description
Model Structure
The model is sub-divided into two distinct modules,
namely a non-spatial demand module and a spatially
explicit allocation procedure (Figure 2). The non-spatial
module calculates the area change for all land-use
types at the aggregate level. Within the second part of
the model these demands are translated into land-use
changes at different locations within the study region
using a raster-based system.
For the land-use demand module, different alternative
model specifications are possible, ranging from
simple trend extrapolations to complex economic models.
The choice for a specific model is very much dependent
on the nature of the most important land-use
conversions taking place within the study area and the
scenarios that need to be considered. Therefore, the
demand calculations will differ between applications
and scenarios and need to be decided by the user for
the specific situation. The results from the demand
module need to specify, on a yearly basis, the area
covered by the different land-use types, which is a direct
input for the allocation module. The rest of this paper
focuses on the procedure to allocate these demands to
land-use conversions at specific locations within the
study area.
The allocation is based upon a combination of empirical,
spatial analysis, and dynamic modelling. Figure
3 gives an overview of the procedure. The empirical
analysis unravels the relations between the spatial distribution
of land use and a series of factors that are
drivers and constraints of land use. The results of this
empirical analysis are used within the model when simulating
the competition between land-use types for a
specific location. In addition, a set of decision rules is
specified by the user to restrict the conversions that can
take place based on the actual land-use pattern. The
different components of the procedure are now discussed
in more detail.
Spatial Analysis
The pattern of land use, as it can be observed from
an airplane window or through remotely sensed images,
reveals the spatial organization of land use in
relation to the underlying biophysical and socio-eco-
The model structure should allow spatial interactions
between locations and feedbacks from higher
levels of organization.
Model Description
Model Structure
The model is sub-divided into two distinct modules,
namely a non-spatial demand module and a spatially
explicit allocation procedure (Figure 2). The non-spatial
module calculates the area change for all land-use
types at the aggregate level. Within the second part of
the model these demands are translated into land-use
changes at different locations within the study region
using a raster-based system.
For the land-use demand module, different alternative
model specifications are possible, ranging from
simple trend extrapolations to complex economic models.
The choice for a specific model is very much dependent
on the nature of the most important land-use
conversions taking place within the study area and the
scenarios that need to be considered. Therefore, the
demand calculations will differ between applications
and scenarios and need to be decided by the user for
the specific situation. The results from the demand
module need to specify, on a yearly basis, the area
covered by the different land-use types, which is a direct
input for the allocation module. The rest of this paper
focuses on the procedure to allocate these demands to
land-use conversions at specific locations within the
study area.
The allocation is based upon a combination of empirical,
spatial analysis, and dynamic modelling. Figure
3 gives an overview of the procedure. The empirical
analysis unravels the relations between the spatial distribution
of land use and a series of factors that are
drivers and constraints of land use. The results of this
empirical analysis are used within the model when simulating
the competition between land-use types for a
specific location. In addition, a set of decision rules is
specified by the user to restrict the conversions that can
take place based on the actual land-use pattern. The
different components of the procedure are now discussed
in more detail.
Spatial Analysis
The pattern of land use, as it can be observed from
an airplane window or through remotely sensed images,
reveals the spatial organization of land use in
relation to the underlying biophysical and socio-eco-
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