Before July, SCB Asset Management in Bangkok held about US$2 billion worth of medium-term notes issued by Turkish lenders. That figure has now dropped to about $1.2 billion.
While it is just a fraction of the $88 billion of debt due within a year from Turkish banks, the decline in holdings by Thai investors such as SCB shows that one of the most robust markets for country’s lenders is waning.
Since 2013, when Moody’s lifted Turkey from junk status, Thais have become some of the biggest buyers of medium-term notes (MTN) to capture the highest yields among investment-grade banks.
Turkey’s “risk has been rising and the return has not been well compensated”, said Narongsak Plodmechai, who helps oversee 1 trillion baht as managing director of SCB Asset Management.
Worsening tensions with Kurds and the second election in five months has made Turkey’s lira this year’s second-worst emergingmarket performer.
Higher rates make debt from Turkish lenders a good fit for Thailand’s “term funds”, which buy investment-grade, short-dated international securities. After a currency swap into baht, the notes form part of funds sold to retail clients to hold until maturity, offering higher returns than the banks’ deposits.
Thai investors hold more than two-thirds of all shorter-dated notes issued by Turkish banks, according to Amaury Gosse, the global head of MTN trading at Citigroup in London.
“They are probably the most active short-dated MTN investor base in the world for high-yielding investment-grade names — it is unique,” Gosse said. “These are buy-and-hold investors.”
The demand from Thailand has offered some escape from rising debt costs. Turkiye Is Bankasi AS, the third-largest Turkish lender, was offering 1.45% on six-month dollar debt as of Oct 15.
The latest twist in the Thai market has again been spurred, at least in part, by Moody’s. It warned this month that “high dependence on foreign funding is a significant risk for credit growth” for Turkish banks.
“The political uncertainty and Moody’s rating threat have forced us to be more conservative,” said Pramook Malasitt, senior fund manager at Kasikorn Asset Management. “My biggest concern would be a depreciated lira, which would erode the banks’ capital and debtservice ability of corporates.”
K-Asset has reduced its Turkish MTNs from a peak of about $3 billion, Mr Pramook said, declining to give the current level.
The threat of an eventual US interest-rate increase has weighed further against demand for Turkish assets.
Most of the money exiting Turkey is now flowing to China as its banks “remain the least vulnerable to a US rate hike”, said Mr Narongsak.