policy implications:
• The decline in exports and the resulting fall in the GDP growth rates for a
number of countriesin SoutheastAsia—notablyThailand, the Philippines,
Malaysia, and Indonesia—have come in the middle of a long and
incomplete transition process from authoritarian to democratic forms of
governance. Other countries, such as Vietnam, have retained authoritarian
governance but depend on continued high growth to maintain support for
the government. The impact of the global recession on exports, therefore,
threatens political stability in a number of the countries in the region.
• Because the nations of Southeast Asia regularly consult with each other
through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), among
other venues, there is little prospect of a major military action by one
country in the region against another—even if the economic recession
proves to be deep and prolonged.
• The U.S. can make the largest contribution to prosperity and political
stability in Southeast Asia by restoring the health of the U.S. economy
while remaining open to trade and investment both with the region and
with the rest of the world.