In a complicated context, at least one right
answer exists. In a complex context, however,
right answers can’t be ferreted out. It’s like the
difference between, say, a Ferrari and the
Brazilian rainforest. Ferraris are complicated
machines, but an expert mechanic can take
one apart and reassemble it without changing
a thing. The car is static, and the whole is the
sum of its parts. The rainforest, on the other
hand, is in constant flux—a species becomes
extinct, weather patterns change, an agricultural
project reroutes a water source—and the
whole is far more than the sum of its parts.
This is the realm of “unknown unknowns,” and
it is the domain to which much of contemporary
business has shifted.