1 summarizes our findings. Overall the observed anticorrelation of the
IMR with the NINO3 index is well reproduced in the ensemble mean. The correlation
coefficients are CC = -0.59 for CRU data and CC = -0.63 for the ENS1 ensemble
average. More importantly, the weakening in the Indian monsoon-ENSO
relationship observed in the last quarter of the 20th century is well captured by
the model. Indeed, when the 1975-1999 period is compared to previous 25 years
the anticorrelation reduces of 0.24 for CRU data and of 0.28 in ENS1. 3 The
change in the modeled ensemble mean correlation is statistically significant at the
90% confidence level. If individual ensemble members are used, the average drop
in anticorrelation is from -0.49 (1950-1974 period) to -0.33 (1975-1999 period),
and the relative change remains about the same as for the ensemble mean. According
to a t-test the change between the two periods is statistically significant
at the 95% confidence level.