2.5 Some Doubts about Contingent Capital
Most of the contingent capital securities issued to date have trigger events linked to the capital
ratio of the issuer. Given that the major goal of regulators and issuers is to reduce systemic risk
exposure, there are doubts about the effectiveness of risk mitigation and the future of contingent
capital. Investors and researchers have voiced many suspicions about the contingent capital
instruments.
(1) Most of the trigger events used so far are based on the company’s own core tier 1 capital
ratio, a regulatory capital adequacy measure. This might not provide timely conversion
considering the fast downward slide during a crisis.13
(2) To mitigate systemic risks and reduce the need of government bailouts for systematically
important financial institutions, the market size of contingent capital needs to be big
enough.
There are also concerns about using the
capital ratio, a measure based on market value. In a stressed situation, the owners of
contingent capital, anticipating a drastic drop in equity price and occurrence of the trigger
event in the near future, may short the stocks and exert pressure on the stock price. By doing
this, they can get a lower conversion price. Stockholders may sell the stocks with the
expectation of such behavior. This downward spiral may totally devour the benefits of the
conversion and dilute the value of existing stockholders.
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(3) There have been hot discussions about contingent capital’s impact on systemic risk. Some
argue that the trigger event should be based on the loss of an industry, or the whole financial
system, instead of the issuers’ own loss.
New features of contingent capital cause difficulty and uncertainty for both the
pricing and valuation of this new type of hybrid security. Its higher risk and the lack of
knowledge and experience may daunt many investors. There are also investors who have an
investment policy that disallows equity market investment or have a limit on equity allocation.
They may not be able to invest in contingent capital. In addition, when contingent capital is
converted to common equity, they may be forced to sell the stocks, which may have a big
market impact and more loss. This is also a potential impediment for the development of the
contingent capital market.
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13 Hillion and Vermaelen, "Death Spiral Convertibles,” 3-6; MacDonald, "Contingent Capital,” 11.
In this way, contingent capital is only used for
managing systemic risk. The issuer is able to raise capital using traditional methods such as
rights issues if the issuer gets into trouble due to its idiosyncratic risk. Others argue that an
industry-wide trigger may increase the systemic risk instead of decreasing it. If the trigger is at
the discretion of the regulators, they might be reluctant to trigger the conversion. If
contingent capital is triggered or is near the trigger point, it will convey a very clear adverse
message to the market which may lead to overreaction of investors and therefore more