An estimate for world coal production in the long run would be helpful for developing policies for alternative
energy sources and for climate change. This production has often been estimated from reserves that are
calculated from measurements of coal seams. We show that where the estimates based on reserves can be
tested in mature coal regions, they have been too high, and that more accurate estimates can be made by
curve fits to the production history. These curve fits indicate that total world production, including past and
future production, will be 680 Gt. The historical range for these fits made on an annual basis from 1995 to
2009 is 653 Gt to 749 Gt, 14% in percentage terms. The curve fits also indicate that 90% of the total production
will have taken place by 2070. This gives the time scale for considering alternatives. This estimate for total
production is somewhat less than the current reserves plus cumulative production, 1163 Gt, and very much
less than the amount of coal that the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, assumes is
available for its scenarios. The maximum cumulative coal production through 2100 in an IPCC scenario is
3500 Gt.
An estimate for world coal production in the long run would be helpful for developing policies for alternativeenergy sources and for climate change. This production has often been estimated from reserves that arecalculated from measurements of coal seams. We show that where the estimates based on reserves can betested in mature coal regions, they have been too high, and that more accurate estimates can be made bycurve fits to the production history. These curve fits indicate that total world production, including past andfuture production, will be 680 Gt. The historical range for these fits made on an annual basis from 1995 to2009 is 653 Gt to 749 Gt, 14% in percentage terms. The curve fits also indicate that 90% of the total productionwill have taken place by 2070. This gives the time scale for considering alternatives. This estimate for totalproduction is somewhat less than the current reserves plus cumulative production, 1163 Gt, and very muchless than the amount of coal that the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, assumes isavailable for its scenarios. The maximum cumulative coal production through 2100 in an IPCC scenario is3500 Gt.
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