The situation here is actually rather odd. For example, many people believe that our baselines are unreasonably high, and this is particularly true in European countries that have made substantial effort to reduce their domestic emissions. However, there is a “be careful what you wish for” element to this situation. If future effort in these countries is calculated on the basis of baselines which already contain all current policies (as is for example done in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook), then future efforts will appear to be altogether and even absurdly inadequate. It’s only by measuring all efforts against a counter-factual, no-policies baseline that the real truth of the situation – for example, that northern European countries are already doing significant mitigation – becomes visible