The projections by Global Climate models (GCMs) of the impactof climate change on precipitation, especially in the high mountain regions of the eastern part of Central Asia, are not clear-cut. There is
some indication that the northern part of Central Asia (Kazakhstan)
may receive more precipitation in the future, while the southern
part (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan) may receive less; the extent of
both areas varying in (future) time and space depending on the
underlying particular GCM. For certain areas in the center of Central
Asia some GCMs project an increase in precipitation while others
suggest the opposite. However, the overall changes in precipitation
are projected to be rather small (IPCC, 2007). Lioubimtseva
and Henebry (2009) reviewed the literature on the vulnerability of
the Central Asian countries to climate change. Among others, they
examined climate change as projected by IPCC GCMs and concluded
that changes in precipitation are small and hardly discernible given
the high temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, and that
the changes in temperature will be the stronger factor affecting
potential vulnerabilities across Central Asia. This is in line with
the review of Singh et al. (2011), who estimated the reduction in
precipitation for the whole Central Asia to be only about 3%.