Outlook for Economic Activity Presented in the April Outlook Report
Turning to the outlook for Japan's economic activity based on the developments explained
so far, although sluggishness is expected to remain in exports and production for the time
being, domestic demand is likely to follow an uptrend, and exports are expected to increase
moderately on the back of emerging economies moving out of their deceleration phase.
Thus, Japan's economy is likely to be on a moderate expanding trend. Taking into account
the fluctuations due to a front-loaded increase and subsequent decline in demand prior to
and after the consumption tax hike planned in April 2017, the expected growth rates during
the projection period are in the range of 1.0-1.5 percent for fiscal 2016, slightly positive for
fiscal 2017, and about 1 percent for fiscal 2018 (Chart 4). Comparing the current
projections through fiscal 2017 with those in the January 2016 Outlook Report, GDP
growth is somewhat lower, influenced mainly by weaker exports that reflect the slowdown
in overseas economies.