The AIC step-down model outperformed the GBR and negative binomial model for predicting numbers of incident cases and was chosen as optimal in both Singapore and Bangkok. The best fitting AIC step-down models have the predictor search terms shown in Figure 1. Table 1 shows the model diagnostics comparing the step-down and full models for Singapore and Bangkok. A multiple time series plot showing normalized dengue incidence, the results of the optimized model fits and the error between predicted and observed incidence is presented as Figure 2.