Introduction
The first transaction in the weather derivatives market took place in 19971.
Since that time, the market has expanded rapidly into a flourishing over the
counter (OTC) market. Further growth in the end-user sector is somewhat limited
by the credit issues associated with an OTC market (i.e., satisfying the
International Securities and Derivatives Association Master Swap Agreement).
To increase the size of the market and to remove credit risk from the trading of
weather contracts, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is introducing
weather derivatives to be traded electronically on the CME’s GLOBEX®2
system. The individual contracts are calendar-month futures (swap) contracts on
heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) as well as options
on futures2. This document discusses some of the fundamentals of pricing and
analyzing weather contracts.