Notes: Data are on a fiscal year basis and may not correspond exactly with the crop or calendar year. “Direct
Payments” include production flexibility contract payments enacted under the 1996 farm bill and fixed direct
payments of the 2002 and 2008 farm bills; “Price-Contingent” outlays include loan deficiency payments,
marketing loan gains, counter-cyclical payments, ACRE, PLC, and ARC payments; “Conservation” outlays include
Conservation Reserve Program payments along with other conservation program outlays; “Ad Hoc and
Emergency” includes emergency supplemental crop and livestock disaster payments and market loss assistance
payments for relief of low commodity prices; and “All Other” outlays include peanut quota buyout payments,
milk income loss payments, tobacco transition payments, and other miscellaneous expenditures.
Government payments of $13.5 billion are expected to represent a relatively
small share (3%) of projected gross cash income of $400.6 billion in 2016
(Figure 8).
In contrast, government payments are expected to represent 19% of net farm
income of $71.7 billion in 2016 (Table 1). However, the importance of government payments as a percent of net farm income varies nationally by crop
and livestock sector and region.
Farm fixed direct payments, whose payment rates were fixed in previous
legislation, were eliminated by the 2014 farm bill.9
Payments under the price-contingent marketing loan benefit are forecast at $208
million in 2015 and $496 million in 2016, as program crop prices are expected to
remain above most program loan rates—the exception being rice and peanuts
(Table 4).
The Margin Protection Program (MPP) for dairy is expected to earn savings as
producer premiums paid exceed federal payouts by $6 million in 2016.
Conservation programs include all conservation programs operated by USDA’s
Farm Service Agency (FSA) and the Natural Resources Conservation Service
(NRCS) that provide direct payments to producers. Estimated conservation
payments of $3.7 billion are forecast for 2016, up slightly (2%) from 2015.
Supplemental and ad-hoc disaster assistance payments are forecast at $651
million in 2016, a 64% decline from $1.8 billion in 2015. The decline is largely
due to an expected decline in payouts under the Livestock Forage Program (LFP)
and bird flu payments made by USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection
Service (APHIS).
10