International trade flows
Lower growth in major developed countries and ensuing downward pressure on developing
country trading partners has kept trade growth low over the past few years. World trade
continued to grow at a slow pace in 2014, expanding at around 3.4 per cent, still well below
pre-crisis trends. In the forecast period, trade growth is expected to pick up moderately along
with improvement in global output, with the volume of world exports projected to grow by
4.5 per cent in 2015 and 5.0 per cent in 2016.
Developed countries are expected to see some improvement in trade flows, with export
growth rising from 3.4 per cent in 2014 to 4.6 per cent in 2015. Import growth will also
progress at a similar rate, with further improvement expected in 2016. This will be driven
partly by firming growth in the United States with a strong rise in export growth from 2.7 per
cent in 2014 to 5.3 per cent in 2015. Export growth will slow somewhat in 2016 to 4.5 per
cent, restrained by the appreciation of the United States dollar. Further stabilization in
Western Europe will boost export growth somewhat, although the deprecation of the euro
may limit import growth in the Euro area. Japan’s exports are expected to grow moderately,
partly due to a weaker yen.
Exports of the CIS have been heavily affected by geopolitical tensions in the region and the
global oil market. Growth of export volumes for the region are estimated to be flat for 2014
and are only expected to rise moderately over the forecast period, by 0.6 per cent in 2015 and
1.8 per cent in 2016. Import growth will fare worse, falling by 3.0 per cent in 2014 and only
rising to 1.1 per cent by 2016.