In view of the relationship between the variability of rainfall during each season
represented by PC1 to SST anomalies in various months, we perform lead-lag
correlation analysis to further investigate. The SST anomalies in Pacific
Ocean were averaged, and used them to determine the relationships with the variability of
rainfall over Thailand. Whereas, the Nino3.4 area (5°N-5°S, 170°-120°W) representing
ENSO phenomenon (Trenberth and Stepaniak, 2001) was used to determine the lead-lag
correlations. The Fig. 5a shows the positive relation between the variability of rainfall over
the Indochina (PC1) and the SST anomalies over the SA in the Pacific Ocean. The positive
correlation means that the increasing (decreasing) of SST anomalies in that area related to
rising (reducing) of the rainfall variability magnitude indicating more (less) rainfall over the
Indochina. The significant correlations present six months before and after the winter season
that implies the warming SST anomalous over the SA of the Pacific Ocean triggers more
rainfall over the Indochina and after that the rainfall sends signal back to that area of the
Ocean.