demand might go up even further. Still, you know that you have some extra cases on order, but
you're not sure exactly how many. Better order at least sixteen more.
Week 5: Your one case sells out Monday morning. Fortunately, you receive a shipment for
seven more cases of Lover's (apparently your wholesaler is starting to respond to your higher
orders). But all are sold by the end of the week, leaving you with absolutely zero inventory.
Glumly, you stare at the empty shelf. Better order another sixteen. You don't want to get a
reputation for being out of stock of popular beers.
Week 6: Sure enough, customers start coming in at the beginning of the week, looking
for Lover's. Two are loyal enough to wait for your backlog. "Let us know as soon as it
comes in," they say, "and we'll be back to buy it." You note their names and phone
numbers: they've promised to buy one case each.
Only six cases arrive in the next shipment. You call your two "backlogged" customers.
They stop in and buy their shares; and the rest of the beer sells out before the end of the
week. Again, two customers give you their names to call as soon as your next shipment
arrives. You wonder how many more you could have sold had your shelves not been
empty at the end of the week. Seems there's been a run on the beer: none of the stores
in the area have it. This beer is hot, and it's apparently getting more popular all the time.
After two days of staring at the parched, empty shelf, it doesn't feel right to order
any less than another sixteen cases. You're tempted to order more, but you restrain
yourself because you know the big orders you've been placing will start to arrive soon.
But when . . . ?
Week 7: The delivery truck brings only five cases this week, which means that you're
facing another week of empty shelves. As soon as you fill your back orders, Lover's Beer
is sold out again, this time within two days. This week, amazingly, five customers give you
their names. You order another sixteen and silently pray that your big orders will start
arriving. You think of all the lost potato chip sales.