It is evident that the calorific value of incinerated waste has an insignificantly decreasing trend. During a ten-year period, the calorific value of HCF may decrease up to 1.8% (Scenario 1) and up to 1.2% (in Scenario 2; the difference between scenarios 1 and 2 is 4%). This is attributed to increasing effectiveness of household separation of recyclable fractions. Although the share of other combustible waste in the MSW content will increase, it will not compensate the decrease of calorific value. In Scenario 3, when the MSW composition remains constant, the calorific value of waste after mechanical treatment remains the same.
The calculations suggest that even with a gradual decrease of calorific value of waste, the overall calorific value will be greater than the minimum value for waste incineration. Such waste may be incinerated without addi- tional fuel.