In order to properly evaluate the gains from nancial integration, it is necessary to calculate
welfare conditional on initial conditions.17 Starting from an common initial state, including initial
portfolios for all agents and exogenous shocks, assume that there is an unanticipated change in
regime from r1 to r2. Accordingly, agents in the economy optimize their consumption and portfolio
paths in each integration regime after they observe the realization of shocks. Specically, assume
that the economy starts at period 0 with end-of-period portfolio fkj
i;0; bj;0gj=1;2;3
i=1;2 and exogenous
state A0. The switch of regimes happens unexpectedly at period 1 and the economy stays in that
regime from period 1 onwards. Nevertheless, the exogenous shocks in period t = 1; 2 are unknown
for agents in period 0. Let the welfare in period 0 be V r
0;j for integration regime r and agent j,