In several of these theories, there is a single critical focal value for attention, for
example, the aspiration level that divides subjective success from subjective failure. The
present observations with respect to the shifting focus of attention in risk seem to
confirm the importance of two focal values rather than a single one (Lopes 1987; March
1988). The most frequently mentioned values are a target level for performance (e.g.,
breakeven) and a survival level. These two reference points partition possible states into three: success, failure, and extinction. The addition of a focus value associated with
extinction changes somewhat the predictions about risk attention (or preference) as a
function of success.