The debate over the viability of the program centered on estimated “break-even sales” — the
number of jets that would need to be sold for total revenue to cover all accumulated costs.
Lockheed’s CEO, in his July 1971 testimony before Congress, asserted that this break-even
point would be reached at sales somewhere between 195 and 205 aircraft. At that point,
Lockheed had secured only 103 firm orders plus 75 options-to-buy, but they testified that
sales would eventually exceed the break-even point and that the project would thus become
“a commercially viable endeavor.” Lockheed also testified that it hoped to capture 35%-40%
of the total free-world market of 775 wide bodies over the next decade (270-310 aircraft). This
market estimate had been based on the optimistic assumption of 10% annual growth in air
travel. At a more realistic 5% growth rate, the total world market would have been only
about 323 aircraft.