why external shocks and corresponding macroeconomic policy adjustments might also be associated with trade and investment liberalization…is puz- zling. In the 1930s, balance of payments and debt crises spurred the substitu- tion of imports…and gave rise to a more autarchic and interventionist policy stance. In the 1980s, by contrast, an inward-looking policy seemed fore- closed.… The opportunities for continued import substitution were limited, and ties to the world economy had become more varied, complex and diffi- cult to sever.