4. The 2016 election. Speaking of future federal action, the 2016 presidential election is likely to have significant implications for the future of early childhood education. Likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has made early childhood a signature priority on the campaign trail. Her prospective Republican opponents – not so much. Whether that changes in the general election is worth keeping an eye on.
Beyond the top of the ticket, however, the results of congressional elections will determine the extent to which early childhood policies can move forward in the next Congress. Gubernatorial and state legislative elections will also have crucial implications for state early childhood investments – particularly in states like Missouri, North Carolina and West Virginia. But the real sleeper of the 2016 election season may be local ballot initiatives on early childhood education.
[SEE: Editorial Cartoons on the 2016 Presidential Elections]
5. Continued expansion of local early childhood programs. Over the past decade, much of the focus of early childhood advocacy has been on state policies and funding. During the Obama administration, the federal government has also lent support to state-driven efforts.
With federal and many state governments increasingly constrained by partisan gridlock and fiscal constraints, however, local governments may no longer be willing to wait for state or federal leaders to take the lead. Over the past few years, cities like Denver, San Antonio, San Francisco and Seattle have taken matters into their own hands with local ballot initiatives to fund early childhood education. And preschool is likely to be on the ballot in more cities and local jurisdictions in 2016.
The emergence of local preschool initiatives is a promising strategy to expand preschool access in the face of state and federal gridlock. And local commitment and funding are essential to both the effective implication of early childhood programs and their long-term financial sustainability. In the near term, however, these locally driven efforts could further fragment an already fragmented early childhood landscape and could backfire if local leaders lack a sophisticated understanding of what quality early learning requires.
Of course, the biggest early childhood stories in 2016 may well be things we can't yet predict. New research, new state and local policy developments or new innovative approaches for engaging families and communities to support their children's development – all of those things are likely to be part of the early childhood story in 2016, and all well worth keeping an eye on.