The analysis of the modeling results will allow concluding
about the impact of the national emission scenarios for 2020 on
the air quality of Portugal. The previous evaluation/validation
exercises performed for this modeling system were fundamental to
support and guarantee the analysis of these model results. In
several previous works (Monteiro et al., 2013a; Monteiro et al.,
2013b) the EURAD modeling results were compared with
observations from the air quality monitoring stations, for the
several air pollutants and for a long period (one year) and also
inter–compared with other air quality models. The results point
out a very good correspondence between simulated and observed
values for the various species, with a RMSE is, in average, below
20 μg m–3; BIAS below –10 μg m–3 for the different pollutants
(namely O3, NOX and PM10) and the correlation coefficient, in
average, above 0.7 for O3 and above 0.6 for PM10 and NOX. These
parameters give an estimation of the uncertainty associated with
the model results, essential for a correct interpretation and
analysis of the results.