BBL expects high loan growth in 2016 when infrastructure projects
come in, with only modest growth in 2015, though provisions should
ease upon restructure of loans. We adjust forecasts to incorporate
guidance and possible lower GDP in 2015 than hoped, which reduces
target price to Bt250 (from Bt255). BBL remains one of our lead picks
however, as it is the best play on investment cycle yet lags its peers.
Strong loan growth recovery in 2016. BBL has set its 2015 loan growth target at 3-
5%, saying that it prefers to leave infrastructure loans out of the equation since it
expects these to come in 2016 rather than 2015. We forecast loan growth accelerate
to 7% in 2016 from 4% in 2015.
4Q14F: so-so, up 15% YoY but down 8% QoQ to Bt8.8bn. Guidance suggests a modest
top line recovery (loan growth and fee income) in 4Q14, as we expected. Its chase for
more deposits is expected to lead to a sharper squeeze in NIM than anticipated. Lower
provisions is the main positive. Below are our forecasts based on guidance.
1. Loan growth: 1-2% in 2014 (1.7-2.7% QoQ in 4Q14), missing target of 3-5%,
mostly supplied by SME and housing loans. Demand for agricultural-related
working capital loans has been lower than usual. Corporate loans were stable
in 4Q14 but contracted in 2014 as big corporates issued bonds to repay loans.
2. NIM: Expect a 10 bps squeeze upon higher cost of deposits from more
aggressive deposit raising (5-6% QoQ growth in deposits for 4Q14 and 2014).
3. Fee income growth: 2-3% in 2014 (4-5% QoQ for 4Q14), mainly from mutual
fund and bancassurance, but dampened by sluggish loan-related fees.
4. Opex: Grew ~12% in 2014 (6-7% if excluding the 2013 TAMC write-back),
translating to a seasonal QoQ rise in 4Q14.
5. Provisions: Bt9bn in 2014F (50 bps credit cost), implying a QoQ reduction in
4Q14 without the extra provisions in 3Q14.
Easing NPLs and provisions. BBL has completed the restructuring of new NPLs from
a large SME loan arising in 3Q14. However, it will take three months to be assured the
loan will stay current and can exit the NPL column. BBL thus expects this NPL to be
declassified in 1Q15. Recall that its NPLs rose 3% QoQ or Bt1.1bn in 3Q14 after the
borrower failed to get the debt restructuring done in time. Easing NPLs should mean
easing provisions in 2015. We continue to expect credit cost to come down to 46 bps in
2015 from 50 bps in 2014, assuming no extra provisions.
Lower 2014 and 2015 forecasts by 2%. For 2014F, we cut our loan growth forecast
to 1percent from 2% and NIM by 3 bps. For 2015F, we cut loan growth to 4percent from 5% and
non-NII growth to 7percent from 10% to factor in the potential slower 2015F GDP growth
than expected. This led to a slight drop in TP to Bt250 (1.3x 2015F BVPS) from Bt255.
Maintain as top Buy as the laggard play. We see BBL as the best play on the
investment cycle of all banks: it has the strongest balance sheet in all aspects (LLR
coverage, capital adequacy ratio and liquidity), it has highest exposure to corporate
loans and is in the best position to benefit from AEC integration in terms of network.