5. Calculation and results
To investigate the influence of the damage location and extent on the ship hull reliability, a series of analyses are conducted including the intact and damaged condition in both hogging and sagging state. In this paper the commercial @RISK software, which is developed based on the Monte Carlo simulation technique, is applied to calculate the structural failure probability. The results are shown in Fig. 3–6 and Fig. 7–10. Fig. 3–6 and Fig. 7–10 reveal the failure probability of ship after collision and grounding, taking into account the change of loading condition and navigation condition according the ABS Guideline. In order to compare with failure probability of the intact ship, the external loads, including the still water moment and wave-induced moment, are assumed to those determined by the equations suggested by the IACS (Eqs. (8) and (18)) and the same as those in the intact condition. The corresponding failure probabilities of the ship hull after collision and grounding are also shown in Figs. 7–10.