There were 329 events in the first year (cumulative incidence function: 7.3% person-years) and 616 in successive years (21.5% person-years; follow-up 4.9 ± 2.4 years). The risk of events during the first year per tertile was 2.5% person-years in the low-risk tertile (< 3 points), 4.8% person-years in the intermediate-risk tertile (3-6 points), and 15.5% person-years in the high-risk tertile (> 6 points) (P < .001). The risk of events in the cohort that had a combined event in successive years increased from 10.7% person-years in the low-risk tertile (< 3 points) to 40.3% person-years in the high-risk tertile (> 6 points) (P < .001). The 2 scales showed the following predictive indexes: C statistic, 0.74 and 0.69, respectively; P (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) ≥ 0.44