The impact of local market fundamentals on excess real estate security returns
can be separated into local demand and supply effects, namely the local country
gross domestic product (GDP) change and the long interest rate minus the
short interest rate spread.7 Local GDP change is the key fundamental determinant
of commercial and residential space demand. A change in demand for
space, ceteris paribus, will exert an impact on rents and property values and
returns of real estate companies. While local GDP change may not be a perfect
proxy for the change in demand, it has been widely used; we supplement it
later with additional demand proxies.