Recent megatrends shaping the future transportation
system
Megatrends describe fundamental, long-lasting processes which affect economy and society in multiple ways and thus also have an impact on supply and demand of mobility and
transportation. Analyzing megatrends and their impact provides insights into the nature of the transformation process and
related challenges. In the OPTIMISM project a literature review combined with knowledge provided by experts have
identified megatrends as key factors affecting the transformation process of the transportation system. As the idea was to
identify Megatrends considered as such by the economy and society rather than by academia, the list does not reflect
academic discussion on megatrends and could be further extended. Most of the megatrends are interlinked and some
of them include changes inside the transportation system which affect other parts of the system. Ongoing developments
with a historical background of some decades and which can be supported by data, e.g. the increase in global population,
rising share of Asian GDP or share of urban population, have been considered recent megatrends. Seven established trends have been distinguished in this category:
1.Globalization 2.0
describes a qualitative change in global economic growth, which will remain high in the coming decades with emerging economies experiencing higher rates. The economic boom in BRIC (=Brazil, Russia,India, China) countries is leading to a global shift of economic and political power, prosperity and economic specialization and a “multi-polarization”
of the world with international regulation gaps, e.g. concerning the internet.
The worldwide redistribution of income affects demand for mobility services, vehicle purchases as well as the development of transportation technologies which will have to address needs from different cultural backgrounds
as compared to the last few decades.
2.World population growth will continue and increase demand for goods, natural resources and energy.
Together with a redistribution of prosperity, consumption in the emerging economies is rising, while in Europe, population is expected to decrease.
Rising prices, growing exploitation of natural resources as well as growing international trading and transportation are the consequences. The decrease in population in some European regions
Recent megatrends shaping the future transportationsystemMegatrends describe fundamental, long-lasting processes which affect economy and society in multiple ways and thus also have an impact on supply and demand of mobility andtransportation. Analyzing megatrends and their impact provides insights into the nature of the transformation process andrelated challenges. In the OPTIMISM project a literature review combined with knowledge provided by experts haveidentified megatrends as key factors affecting the transformation process of the transportation system. As the idea was toidentify Megatrends considered as such by the economy and society rather than by academia, the list does not reflectacademic discussion on megatrends and could be further extended. Most of the megatrends are interlinked and someof them include changes inside the transportation system which affect other parts of the system. Ongoing developmentswith a historical background of some decades and which can be supported by data, e.g. the increase in global population,rising share of Asian GDP or share of urban population, have been considered recent megatrends. Seven established trends have been distinguished in this category:1.Globalization 2.0describes a qualitative change in global economic growth, which will remain high in the coming decades with emerging economies experiencing higher rates. The economic boom in BRIC (=Brazil, Russia,India, China) countries is leading to a global shift of economic and political power, prosperity and economic specialization and a “multi-polarization”of the world with international regulation gaps, e.g. concerning the internet.The worldwide redistribution of income affects demand for mobility services, vehicle purchases as well as the development of transportation technologies which will have to address needs from different cultural backgroundsas compared to the last few decades.2.World population growth will continue and increase demand for goods, natural resources and energy. Together with a redistribution of prosperity, consumption in the emerging economies is rising, while in Europe, population is expected to decrease. Rising prices, growing exploitation of natural resources as well as growing international trading and transportation are the consequences. The decrease in population in some European regions
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