The Andean nation's production has been impacted in the past by political and economic turmoil, and "if we have something like that happen again, that's a catalyst for moving higher," Croft said.
This is because such an event would strap Venezuela's oil production capabilities because of the unrest, preventing the country from pouring more barrels on to an already oversupplied oil market, thereby keeping supply capped in the face of what has been generally lower demand for oil.
Last month, the International Energy Agency said that global crude supplies were outstripping demand. However, Croft maintains that the oil oversupply looks to be easing, and that the persistence of the global glut has potentially been overblown. In a recent note, she wrote that "acute downside risks to the oil market are visible and are likely already mostly priced in."
For now, all eyes are now on the informal OPEC meeting slated for September, with the big question being whether a production freeze will be agreed upon.
"I think the market will move say $5 higher on the back of that because right now, nobody thinks OPEC has a heartbeat," she explained. "So if they announce a statement, I do think we will move higher."
Crude is now down more than 4 percent this year, after running above $50 in the first half of 2016.
The Andean nation's production has been impacted in the past by political and economic turmoil, and "if we have something like that happen again, that's a catalyst for moving higher," Croft said.This is because such an event would strap Venezuela's oil production capabilities because of the unrest, preventing the country from pouring more barrels on to an already oversupplied oil market, thereby keeping supply capped in the face of what has been generally lower demand for oil.Last month, the International Energy Agency said that global crude supplies were outstripping demand. However, Croft maintains that the oil oversupply looks to be easing, and that the persistence of the global glut has potentially been overblown. In a recent note, she wrote that "acute downside risks to the oil market are visible and are likely already mostly priced in."For now, all eyes are now on the informal OPEC meeting slated for September, with the big question being whether a production freeze will be agreed upon."I think the market will move say $5 higher on the back of that because right now, nobody thinks OPEC has a heartbeat," she explained. "So if they announce a statement, I do think we will move higher."Crude is now down more than 4 percent this year, after running above $50 in the first half of 2016.
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