The time intervals used for this project have a starting period for
the baseline model at 1960 and continue to 2006. Near future
and far future years used are 2035 and 2065 (IPCC, 2013). We
developed six separate model scenarios: baseline, near-future climate,
far-future climate, baseline with BMPs, near-future climate
with BMPs, and far-future climate with BMPs. Each of these scenarios
represents combinations of climate change and adaption strategies
of BMPs as green infrastructure in the watershed.
For climate scenarios in the model, we use the IPCC (WG1-AR5)
predictions of precipitation and temperature for the northeastern
United States, along with meteorological time series (IPCC, 2013).
We compared these future scenarios to the baseline model, especially
on how climate change would affect stormwater. We added
the IPCC’s percentage change in precipitation and temperature to
the hourly time series of temperature and precipitation that is
detrended for 1960–2006. We add the percentage changes in precipitation
and temperature uniformly to each of the segmented
zones that define influence of each meteorological station defining
the weather and climate of the watershed. Given a relatively smaller
size of the watershed, uniform application is reasonable as climate
change prediction is at a coarser scale. The second scenario
that included the near future had a 3% increase in precipitation
and a 1.1 C increase in temperature. The third scenario is the
far-future scenario, which has an increase in precipitation by 5%
and an increase in temperature of 2.1 C. Time series data are processed
and imported into HSPF model using the Sarah Time Series
Utility (Aqua Terra Consultants, 2014).
The time intervals used for this project have a starting period forthe baseline model at 1960 and continue to 2006. Near futureand far future years used are 2035 and 2065 (IPCC, 2013). Wedeveloped six separate model scenarios: baseline, near-future climate,far-future climate, baseline with BMPs, near-future climatewith BMPs, and far-future climate with BMPs. Each of these scenariosrepresents combinations of climate change and adaption strategiesof BMPs as green infrastructure in the watershed.For climate scenarios in the model, we use the IPCC (WG1-AR5)predictions of precipitation and temperature for the northeasternUnited States, along with meteorological time series (IPCC, 2013).We compared these future scenarios to the baseline model, especiallyon how climate change would affect stormwater. We addedthe IPCC’s percentage change in precipitation and temperature tothe hourly time series of temperature and precipitation that isdetrended for 1960–2006. We add the percentage changes in precipitationand temperature uniformly to each of the segmentedzones that define influence of each meteorological station definingthe weather and climate of the watershed. Given a relatively smallersize of the watershed, uniform application is reasonable as climatechange prediction is at a coarser scale. The second scenariothat included the near future had a 3% increase in precipitationand a 1.1 C increase in temperature. The third scenario is thefar-future scenario, which has an increase in precipitation by 5%and an increase in temperature of 2.1 C. Time series data are processedand imported into HSPF model using the Sarah Time SeriesUtility (Aqua Terra Consultants, 2014).
การแปล กรุณารอสักครู่..
![](//thimg.ilovetranslation.com/pic/loading_3.gif?v=b9814dd30c1d7c59_8619)