what is a bullwhip-effect?
this is Ben he likes beer
especially in ted's pub
so ted needs to refill his stocks
...regularly
but one day...
Ben breaks his leg and stays in bed for two weeks
Ted's stock remains full
so ted stops all of this orders which leaves the wholeseller worried of his own stock hastily he stops his orders to the brewery
which adjusts its demand forecast and slows down production then Ben comes out of hospital and feels great!
he celebrates with his friends and doubles his beer-portion
to make sure ted gets enough beer...
...he places several orders with his wholeseller
the wholeseller want to prepare for the trend ...and places ecen bigger orders with his brewery now expects a great future and goes to full capaty
that's how a little change generates huge impact and how can fix it?