On the malaria risk index, it is obvious that most of the selected sites in the
outlying regions of western Ethiopia fall under the “severe” malaria category
(Figure 3). Three-quarters of the country’s land area is at risk of malarial infections
at least once a year (Tedros, et al. 2006; Gabriel and Verdin 2005). Given
the patterns in Figure 3, it would be difficult to identify suitable Weredas in the
outlying regions of western Ethiopia unless we assume a reduced malaria risk
(from “severe” to “moderate”) going forward. Reduction in malaria rates is already
underway due to ongoing government malaria eradication efforts (USAID,
2010). Moreover, the implementation of the “Presidents Malaria Initiative” in
Ethiopia (financed by the U.S. since 2005) is projected to reduce malaria-related
mortality by 50% (FDRE 2008). Specific goals for the plan-period ending in
2010 included a 100 percent national coverage of insecticide treated nets (ITN)
and complete access to effective antimalarial drugs (FDRE 2008). Given these
facts, it is clear that our initial assumption that malaria severity in at-risk Weredas
selected for resettlement will be reduced is tenable.
In sum, the GIS approach used here and the final selection of low density
Weredas with lots of rivers and at least 50% of areas under flat plains (Table 3),
represents a departure from past efforts that have been haphazard and rain-based.
The unshaded areas in the central, northern, and eastern highlands of Ethiopia
(Figure 4) represent Weredas that failed to make it into the final selection due
primarily to the slope criteria. This does not mean, however, that there are no
Weredas or sections of Weredas in the central, northern, and eastern highlands
suitable for irrigation-based resettlement. On the contrary, there are millions of
hectares of suitable lands. In fact, Weredas in the central and eastern highlands
have many of the key ingredients for successful resettlement including: (a) malaria-
free environments year round, (b) a high number of urban service centers,
and (c) the best accessibility by all-weather and dry-weather roads. Therefore,
Figure 4 is best interpreted as a ranking of an individual Wereda’s suitability for
large scale irrigation-based resettlement given the availability of land areas that
meet all of the suitability requirements of this study, particularly the slope and
river length requirements. At the very the top are the darkest of the three shades
of gray (highest percentage of suitable land). At the very bottom are high population
density Weredas in the central, northern, and eastern highlands (shown as
unshaded spaces in Figure 4) that also have the steepest slopes and the lowest
percentages of suitable land for Wereda-wide irrigation-based resettlement.