In the short to mid-term, the impact will be minimal as Iraq's south is its dominant producer.
However, there are enough rich assets in the midlands and the north part of Iraq that ISIS could reach out to, a potential capacity that could ramp up to a million barrels a day.
If they succeed in controlling those assets, cash inflow could stretch their empire of terrorism beyond imagination. But so far, ISIS oil trading has remained local with buyers in Jordan, Turkey, Syria and Iran via middlemen network and truck owners
However, the instability created by Iraq effectively being broken up would have a ripple impact, in terms of interruption investment prospect in the country. In turn, that could prevent Iraq from reaching its 2020 target of 9 million barrels of oil production per day, which is three times Iraq's current oil supply and 10% of global demand.