Most situations and decisions in organizations
are complex because some major
change—a bad quarter, a shift in management,
a merger or acquisition—introduces unpredictability
and flux. In this domain, we can understand
why things happen only in retrospect.
Instructive patterns, however, can emerge if
the leader conducts experiments that are safe
to fail. That is why, instead of attempting
to impose a course of action, leaders must
patiently allow the path forward to reveal
itself. They need to probe first, then sense,
and then respond.
There is a scene in the film Apollo 13 when
the astronauts encounter a crisis (“Houston,
we have a problem”) that moves the situation
into a complex domain. A group of experts is
put in a room with a mishmash of materials—
bits of plastic and odds and ends that mirror
the resources available to the astronauts in
flight. Leaders tell the team: This is what
you have; find a solution or the astronauts