Information about other tourists' behavior is used to
estimate the prior probability and the likelihood in the
Bayesian analysis. Both the preferences and choices of
tourists are involved in the estimation. At the rst level
of provided activities hierarchy, there are two choices:
`Entertainment & outdoor' and `Sightseeing' (Figure 2). The
probabilities of choosing these two activities by other tourists,
according to the survey, are 0.23 and 0.77, respectively,
P(H1) D (0:23; 0:77). Subscript 1 designates the provided
activities at this rst level. The two values are used as the prior
probabilities of the two provided activities in the Bayesian
process.