WHAT'S GOING ON IN THAILAND? A BRIEF GUIDE.
Here's a summary of what we know so far. King Bhumibol Adulyadej of Thailand has been gravely ill for years, and for the last few months he has been totally incapacitated, kept alive in a vegetative state by constant aggressive medical intervention as well as a respirator and dialysis machines.
During this time, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has been conspiring with Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn to allow the forgery of Bhumibol's signature on royal commands and approvals. Prayuth and Vajiralongkorn have consolidated their position, sidelining junta godfather Prawit Wongsuwan, the former general who previously controlled the Eastern Tigers military clique.
The crown prince has launched a purge in the palace, humiliating the powerful Vajarodaya clan and transferring the head of the Crown Property Bureau which controls royal wealth estimated at more than $50 billion. This paves the way for Vajiralongkorn and his allies to take control of the royal fortune. This gives Vajiralongkorn two immensely potent sources of power — vast wealth, and the sacred aura of royalty. But although reverence for royalty remains remarkably strong in Thailand, many Thais despise and fear Vajiralongkorn.
Aware that most of the palace elite and army factions hate the crown prince, Prayuth has sought to prevent any challenge to his rule by reaching out to Prem Tinsulonanda, an ancient formal general who heads the Privy Council and had the most powerful political network in Thailand from the 1980s until his influence started to fade after he masterminded a disastrous coup in 2006. Prem has long been a bitter enemy of the crown prince and his allies have hatched various plots to prevent Vajiralongkorn becoming king. Prem feared for his safety if the crown prince became monarchy, giving him further incentive to try to prevent Vajiralongkorn taking the throne. Hoping to prevent any nasty surprise at succession time, Prayuth allowed an ally of Prem's to take the key job of army chief in the latest reshuffle. The logic of putting General Chalermchai Sittisart in this position was to try to placate Prem and his allies, as well as military factions resentful of the Eastern Tigers, and prevent a counter-coup during the royal succession process. Vajiralongkorn was persuaded to enter into an uneasy alliance with his old enemy.
If Prem still secretly intends to try to launch a succession surprise, however, the appointment of his ally as army chief gives him control of a strategically crucial position. Mistrust between Prem and Vajiralongkorn remains extremely high.
Many Thais have long feared that Vajiralongkorn will be a cruel and dangerous monarch, and recent developments suggest the reality will be even worse than expected. Last year three members of the prince's inner circle were murdered in army custody in Bangkok after they displeased him. It was claimed that two committed suicide and one died of blood poisoning but the reality is that they were killed and it is inconceivable this could have happened without the prince's approval. Vajiralongkorn has also behaved with extraordinary cruelty towards his third wife Srirasmi and her family after he divorced her in 2014. Most of Srirasmi's close family including her parents, three brothers and a sister were jailed along with several more distant relatives. Srirasmi has been separated from her son Dipangkorn, who she never sees, and credible reports suggest she is still being deliberately tormented at her house in Ratchaburi on the orders of the crown prince.
With King Bhumibol incapacitated, Vajiralongkorn has been pushing to be declared King Rama X. Because Bhumibol is comatose he cannot declare that he is abdicating, and Prayuth is extremely nervous about faking the king's abdication, even for him it is a step tooo far. According to palace law, if the monarch is incapacitated a regent should be appointed to carry out royal duties on his behalf. Since Bhumibol is clearly totally non-functional, there is a clear case for Vajiralongkorn to become regent. In theory, since the regent has the powers of the monarch, he could then immediately declare the abdication of Bhumibol and his own accession to the throne. Meanwhile, if Bhumibol dies, Vajiralongkorn is the designated heir so should be proclaimed Rama X — unless he faces a challenge.
Last Sunday, the palace released an unprecedentedly gloomy announcement about King Bhumibol's health. These palace health bulletins are usually heavily sanitised and semi-fictional, and follow a slightly absurd traditional format, always finding a way to say that the king's health has "improved". Sunday's announcement was the first health updated that failed to say Bhumibol's condition had improved — instead, it said, he was "unstable". Moreover the bulletin announced that doctors had told the king to stop working and suspend his royal duties because of his health. This was also unprecedented. In fact, Bhumibol has