Should Speculators Use Currency Futures or Options?
The choice of options versus futures may depend on the probability distribution of future exchange rate movements. Speculators who are confident that the exchange rate will appreciate, with very little risk of depreciation, may be more willing to buy futures than call options, because they do not need to insure against depreciation. However, speculators who expect appreciation but want to cover against possible depreciation may be willing to buy call options so that their downside risk is limited to what they pay for the call option.