Conclusion
This chapter's case study provides the analyst with a good opportunity to employ basic tools to assess the effects of competing definitions of the problem of prison overcrowding. Based on a new definition of the problem, one should now try to compose a goal statement and performance criteria for a new program. For example, the goal statement might be "to reduce the num ber of repeat drug offenders by 10% in six months" or "to reduce the prison population by 10% in one year by legalizing drugs." Using a target population (drug users going to prison), one could outline performance criteria for a proposed program that might be used for monitoring and post-evaluation of the program later. Included are assumptions, standards, and causal relationships that affect the target population and that will affect the scope and direction of the program. One would also want to develop standards that allow existing policies to work more effectively by precisely hitting intended targets (i.e., hard-core offenders) and using treatment programs for many now sent to jail; or conversely that allow changed policies (i.e., legalization and treatment) to function without generating excessive short-term social costs